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The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, the November trade deficit, and December auto sales. Also the Q4 quarterly Reis surveys for office, apartment and malls will be released this week. The consensus is for the ISM to be at Here is a long term graph of the ISM low deposit holidays august 2016 index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at The employment index was at Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0. Reis Q4 Office Survey of rents and low deposit holidays august 2016 rates. Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus low deposit holidays august 2016 for light vehicle sales to decrease to This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in The dashed line is the November sales rate.

This report is for private payrolls only no government. The consensus is forpayroll jobs added in December, down fromadded in November. The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for thousand initial claims, down from thousand the previous week. Reis Q4 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates. The consensus is for index to decrease to Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase ofnon-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from thenon-farm payroll jobs added in November.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4. This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since In November, the year-over-year change was 2. A key will be the change in wages.

Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. This graph shows the U. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U. Reis Q4 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates. The consensus is a 2. Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower to End Mortgage rates moved lower for a 3rd consecutive day to endbringing them to the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks for many lenders.

December 8th was the last time rates were lower. As of yesterday, 4. Quite a few lenders remain at 4. While this this web page all good news in the context of the past few weeks, nonetheless visit web page with one of the worst 2-month losing streaks in the history of mortgage rates. Specifically, the 5 weeks following the election were the worst 5 weeks on record, going back to the Spring of Here are a low deposit holidays august 2016 graphs for Total payrolls increased by thousand in November private payrolls increased thousand.

Click on graph for larger image. Job growth has averagedper month this year. The peak year for job growth in this cycle was with just over 3 million jobs added. Job growth was at 2. The second graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. A key story in was that the labor force participation rate blue increased slightly - from Based on demographics, the participation rate will start declining again as more baby boomers retire low deposit holidays august 2016 and continue declining for the next decade.

The increase in the participation rate this year suggests the labor market was strong enough to attract enough workers to overcome the demographic trend. The third graph low deposit holidays august 2016 the unemployment rate. Low deposit holidays august 2016 unemployment rate decreased in November to 4.

The unemployment rate was down from 5. The unemployment rate would low deposit holidays august 2016 fallen further if not for the increase in the labor force participation rate. Note the low for the unemployment rate in the previous cycles was 4. It wouldn't take much to be below the low. And now to housing This graph shows existing home sales left axis and new home sales right axis through November.

This graph starts in please click for source, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s. Both existing home and home sales have been increasing, and the gap is closing. I expect existing home sales to move more sideways, and I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales. This graph shows the year-over-year change in low deposit holidays august 2016 and the months-of-supply.

Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change. Low deposit holidays august 2016 of supply was at 4.

The low level of existing home inventory continues to be a key story. This graph shows the huge collapse in palace games casino euro starts following the housing bubble, and that housing starts then mostly moved sideways for two years.

Housing is now recovering but starts are still historically low - so there is room to run. Another piece of good news is mortgage delinquencies are almost back low deposit holidays august 2016 normal.

This graph based on quarterly data from the MBA shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Note that the total percent delinquencies and foreclosures is below the level. The percent of loans 30 and 60 days delinquent ticked down in Q3, and is below the click here historical level.

The 90 day bucket declined further in Q3, but remains a little elevated. The percent of loans low deposit holidays august 2016 the foreclosure process continues to decline, and is still above the historical average. The 90 day bucket and foreclosure inventory are still elevated, but should be close to normal in Most other mortgage measures are already back to normal, but the lenders are still working through the backlog of bubble legacy loans. Delinquencies are falling, but there are still a number of properties in the foreclosure process with long time lines in judicial foreclosure states - but this is getting close to normal levels of REOs.

Remember this is just a portion of the total REO inventory. Private label securities the worst of the worst lending and banks and thrifts also hold a number of REOs. For manufacturing, this graph shows industrial production since Industrial production is The recovery in this web page spending has been ongoing, and seem to have picked up in recent years.

This suggests decent PCE growth in Q4. So PCE had a solid year in And the final graph is for commercial real estate. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This index was positive in 9 of the last 12 months, suggesting a further increase in CRE investment through mid December Chicago Business Barometer Down 3.

After a disappointing start to the fourth quarter, the latest results suggest economic conditions have improved somewhat, low deposit holidays august 2016 the Barometer averaging The December decline was led by a slowdown in New Orders, which fell 6. This is largely owed to stronger outturns in the second half of the year and is testament to the resilience of the US cat october casino codes bonus cool 2015. Hopefully, can build on the momentum generated in the latter stages of The serious delinquency rate low deposit holidays august 2016 down from 1.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February at 5. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0. Freddie Mac reported earlier. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious continue reading rate in November was at 1. Freddie's rate is down from 1. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February at 4.

The Freddie Mac serious delinquency rate has fallen 0. Fannie Mae will probably report tomorrow.


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